The 2026 COLA will depend on inflation data released in September 2025

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 is not yet set. The Social Security Administration announces the COLA each October, based on inflation measurements from the third quarter of that year. For 2026, that announcement will happen in October 2025, using inflation data from July, August, and September 2025.

The COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If inflation during those three months is higher than it was in the same period the previous year, benefits increase by that percentage. If inflation is lower or flat, the COLA is lower or zero.

No one can predict the exact 2026 COLA now because inflation data does not yet exist. Anyone claiming to know the precise figure is guessing. What we can do is look at what inflation has been recently and what economists are forecasting, while understanding that forecasts often miss.

Key Takeaways

  • The 2026 COLA will be announced in October 2025 and is based on inflation data from July through September 2025, which has not yet occurred.
  • Recent COLA increases have ranged from 3.2% to 8.7%, depending on the year and inflation at the time.
  • Current economic forecasts suggest inflation may remain moderate in 2025, but forecasts change frequently and are often wrong.
  • You do not need to do anything to receive the COLA increase — it is applied automatically to all Social Security payments.
  • The COLA affects not only retirement benefits but also Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) payments.

How recent COLAs compare

The COLA has varied widely in recent years. In 2024, the COLA was 3.2%. In 2023, it was 8.7% — the largest increase in four decades, driven by high inflation in 2022. In 2022, the COLA was 5.9%. In 2021, it was 1.3%. In 2020, it was 1.3%. In 2019, it was 2.8%.

These swings show that the COLA is not stable. It rises when inflation rises and falls when inflation falls. There is no trend line you can draw from past years to predict the next one — each year's COLA depends entirely on that year's inflation.

The 2024 COLA of 3.2% means that someone receiving $1,000 per month in 2024 received $1,032 per month in 2025. That is the kind of adjustment to expect if inflation stays moderate. A COLA of 8.7%, like in 2023, would mean that same $1,000 became $1,087.

What inflation forecasts suggest for 2025

As of early 2025, most economists forecast that inflation will remain moderate through the rest of the year — roughly 2% to 3% annually. If that holds, the 2026 COLA would likely fall in that range. But this is a forecast, not a may provide, and forecasts change as new data arrives.

Inflation depends on many factors: energy prices, wage growth, supply chains, consumer spending, and Federal Reserve policy. Any of these can shift, and when they do, inflation forecasts shift with them. The forecasts made in January 2025 may look very different by July 2025.

For that reason, it is not useful to plan your 2026 budget around a specific COLA number. Instead, plan around what you know: your current benefit amount. When the COLA is announced in October 2025, you will know the exact increase for 2026.

When you will know the official 2026 COLA

The Social Security Administration announces the COLA in the second week of October each year. In October 2025, they will announce the 2026 COLA. The increase takes effect in January 2026, when your January payment reflects the new amount.

You do not need to do anything to receive the increase. It is applied automatically to your account. If you receive benefits by direct deposit, your bank will show the new amount on your January payment. If you receive a check, the check will reflect the new amount.

The announcement is posted on the Social Security Administration website and is also reported by major news outlets. You can also call Social Security at 1-800-772-1213 to ask about the 2026 COLA once it has been announced.

How the COLA affects different types of Social Security payments

The COLA applies to all Social Security benefits: retirement benefits, survivor benefits, and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). It also applies to Supplemental Security Income (SSI), though SSI is a different program with different rules.

If you receive multiple types of benefits — for example, retirement benefits and a survivor benefit on a spouse's record — each benefit receives the COLA increase. The increase is calculated on your current benefit amount, not on what you originally received.

The COLA does not apply to Medicare premiums in the same way. Medicare Part B and Part D premiums are set separately each year and do not automatically match the COLA, though there is a "hold harmless" rule that prevents most beneficiaries' premiums from rising faster than their COLA increase.

Why the COLA matters for your budget

For people who depend on Social Security as their main income, the COLA is significant. A 3% increase on a $1,500 monthly benefit is $45 more per month, or $540 per year. A 1% increase is $15 per month. Over time, these add up.

The COLA also affects the maximum benefit amount that new retirees can receive. Each year, the bend points and the primary insurance amount formula are adjusted by the COLA, so someone retiring in 2026 will have a higher maximum benefit than someone who retired in 2025.

If you are planning for retirement or managing a fixed income, it is reasonable to assume a modest COLA — perhaps 2% to 3% — rather than assuming zero or assuming a large increase. This gives you a realistic middle ground for budgeting.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I find out what the 2026 COLA will be before October 2025?

No. The COLA is calculated from inflation data that does not exist yet. Economists publish forecasts, but these are guesses about future inflation, not the actual COLA. The official announcement happens in October 2025.

What if inflation spikes or drops between now and September 2025?

The COLA will reflect whatever inflation actually occurs during July, August, and September 2025. If inflation rises sharply, the COLA rises. If it falls, the COLA falls. This is why no one can predict it accurately now.

Do I have to do anything to get the COLA increase?

No. The increase is applied automatically to your benefit in January 2026. You do not need to contact Social Security or take any action.

What if I am still working — does the COLA still apply?

Yes. The COLA applies to all Social Security beneficiaries, whether or not they are working. If you are subject to the earnings test (because you are under full retirement age), your benefit may be reduced based on your earnings, but the COLA still applies to your benefit amount.

Does the COLA affect the amount I paid into Social Security?

No. The COLA does not change your earnings record or the taxes you paid. It only affects the benefit amount you receive each month starting in 2026.